White evangelical support for Trump slips to 63% ahead of US midterms
A Reuters/Ipsos poll finds white evangelicals still outpace other groups in backing Trump, though support has fallen since his second inauguration.
At a glance
- A Reuters/Ipsos poll puts Trump's support among white evangelicals at 63%, down from 77% at his January 2025 inauguration.
- Trump's overall approval stands at an all-time low of 31%, and white evangelicals are the only tracked group above 60% support.
- Democrats are favoured to win the House on November 3, while Republicans count on their base in states such as South Carolina and Texas.
White evangelical Protestant voters' support for US President Donald Trump has slipped to 63 percent, down from 77 percent at the time of his second inauguration in January 2025, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released this month.
The survey was published as Trump's overall approval rating fell to an all-time low of 31 percent. Even so, white evangelicals continue to outpace every other demographic group Reuters tracks: they were the only group to surpass 60 percent support for Trump in the final stretch before the midterm elections on November 3.
A key Republican bloc
White evangelicals make up about 13 percent of the US population, but accounted for nearly a third of Trump's winning coalition in 2024, according to a Public Religion Research Institute survey and a validated-voter analysis by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center. About 80 percent of white evangelical voters backed Trump in the 2024 general election.
Their 14-point decline in support is smaller than the 16-point drop in Trump's approval among Americans overall. It remains unclear whether shifting attitudes will affect conservative turnout in the midterms, in which the president is not on the ballot.
Democrats remain widely favoured to take control of the House of Representatives, and their chances of flipping the Senate are increasing amid widespread discontent over affordability and the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Campaigning in the Bible Belt
Trump campaigned in South Carolina on Wednesday, focusing on social issues that resonate with conservative Christians, including policies related to transgender people. During the rally he called Democratic challenger Annie Andrews a "fanatical transgender activist" and used an anti-transgender slur; Andrews skews moderate on the issue within the Democratic Party.
Trump carried South Carolina by nearly 18 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, when exit polls found six in 10 Republican primary voters in the state were white evangelicals. Polls show Republican Senate candidate Darline Graham holding only a narrow lead over Andrews two weeks before the vote.
Evangelical leaders and challengers
Trump has maintained support from prominent evangelical leaders despite a series of scandals at odds with the conservative values they espouse, including allegations of sexual misconduct and extramarital affairs, which he denies.
In several top Senate races, Christian faith leaders are challenging Republicans on the Democratic side: Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist Church pastor in Kansas, and James Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian in Texas. Both represent mainline Protestant denominations, not evangelical ones.
White evangelicals' voting trends are distinct from those of other evangelical groups. Black Protestant evangelicals, described as a vanguard of the US civil rights movement, have remained a key Democratic voting bloc.
Source: Al Jazeera.
Questions and answers
- How much support does Trump have among white evangelicals?
- A Reuters/Ipsos poll released this month put it at 63 percent, down from 77 percent at the time of his second inauguration in January 2025.
- Why do white evangelicals matter in the US midterm elections?
- They are a key Republican voting bloc, making up about 13 percent of the US population and nearly a third of Trump's 2024 winning coalition, so any fall in turnout could affect close races.
- When are the US midterm elections?
- They are set for November 3, when Republicans will seek to defend their majorities in Congress. Trump is not on the ballot.
