Ultra-Orthodox conscription becomes defining issue in Israel's election

Israelis vote on October 27 in an election in which the conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jewish men has become a dominant issue, with an estimated 80,000 Haredi men aged between 18 and 24 currently avoiding military service.

The question of whether the Haredi minority should serve has grown sharper as the army reports staffing shortages across multiple conflicts. Their political backers in the Knesset, the Haredi Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) parties, say their constituents preserve Israel's essential character through Torah study and prayer. Critics, including the opposition bloc challenging Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party, call them draft dodgers.

Court ruling and coalition strain

In 2024, Israel's Supreme Court ruled that the military must begin drafting ultra-Orthodox men. In May, Haredi anger over the jailing of draft evaders spilled into street protests, and the issue proved toxic enough to threaten Netanyahu's government.

His coalition has relied on Haredi party support in return for softening measures aimed at forcing their supporters to serve. After Netanyahu told the parties he lacked the votes to pass an exemption bill, they pushed to dissolve the Knesset, effectively weakening the government.

On Tuesday, Netanyahu said he opposed the arrest of 40 Haredim who were taken in for evading the draft after returning to Israel from the United States, despite a law introduced this year meant to temporarily halt such arrests.

"We must preserve the world of Torah because it preserved us," Netanyahu told the Haredi Kol Barama radio station. "These arrests are a deliberate attempt to harm the process of drafting Haredim without coercion."

Public opinion and the opposition

A September poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found 72 percent wanted Haredim drafted alongside other Israelis eligible for service. In early October, a group of Haredim clashed with Israeli forces seeking to arrest a draft dodger in Modi'in, drawing condemnation from Netanyahu's opponents.

Former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, whose Yashar party holds a narrow lead over Likud, said the incident reflected "the same dangerous world view that seeks to make draft evasion the norm and portray those who fulfil their duty to the state as suckers". He framed the election as a choice between "Netanyahu's draft-dodging government, or a government of conscription led by me".

Daniel Bar-Tal, a psychology professor at Tel Aviv University, described the situation as a dilemma for Netanyahu: equal service unites secular and Zionist religious voters, while the ultra-Orthodox vote for the right.

Shas and UTJ have ruled out joining any coalition that does not pass laws exempting their community from service. Pollster Mitchell Barak said the opposition is pitching the vote as "the draft dodgers versus those who protect and serve", calling it the decisive point of the election.

A growing population, rising costs

The Haredi population stands at 1.26 million, or 12.5 percent of Israelis, and projections suggest it could reach between 20 percent and a third of the population by 2065. An August survey found 42 percent of Israelis said their finances had worsened since the war began, with families of reservists hit hardest. Al Jazeera reports the war in Gaza, which began in October 2023, has killed nearly 74,400 people.

Shmuel Rosner, a senior fellow at The Jewish People Policy Institute, said the expanding Haredi sector means a large cohort of potential soldiers does not ease the burden on others, adding that the refusal of Haredi leaders to consider change had shown many Israelis that the community "depends on Israel financially and otherwise contributes little".

Source: Al Jazeera.