UK gas security: Belgian pipeline deal is no permanent fix
Britain will pay about £1.19 per household a year to keep gas flowing from Belgium this winter, but Ofgem and National Gas say more government action is needed.
At a glance
- Britain imports almost 60% of its gas and will pay about £1.19 per household a year for Belgian pipeline capacity this winter.
- Ofgem says the Belgian deal is the only intervention available for winter 2026/27 and more government measures are still needed.
- Neso warned almost a year ago of an emerging gas supply risk in 2030; the government's final response is not due until next year.
Britain has struck a deal with Belgium to keep enough gas flowing through a connecting pipeline this winter, at a cost to households of about 10p a month — £1.19 a year. The payment goes to Interconnector Limited, the Belgian owner of the pipeline, to maintain the compressors needed to push large volumes of gas to Britain at short notice.
The arrangement follows the long-delayed approval of the Jackdaw field in the North Sea, and serves as a reminder that Britain still imports almost 60% of its gas. Ofgem, the regulator, treats the deal as a belt-and-braces measure against a "low-probability but high-impact stress event" — for example, the loss of a critical piece of infrastructure such as the two LNG import terminals at Milford Haven during a prolonged cold snap, when demand is very high and gas-fired power stations may need to run at full pelt. Without the arrangement, Interconnector Limited had warned it would cut capacity, partly because the pipeline was little used last year.
Regulator says more is needed
Ofgem says the deal is the only intervention currently available that addresses supply security for winter 2026/27 while also providing benefits over the following four years — Belgium, or a future deal on the Dutch pipeline, or nothing. It adds that the agreement does not remove the need for further government-led measures to support security of supply and wider gas system resilience in the medium and longer term.
The Guardian's analysis sees the deal as good value as insurance policies go, but says the risks to Britain's gas security are plainly mounting. Almost a year ago the National Energy System Operator warned of an "emerging risk to gas supply security" in 2030. The government promised to do "whatever it takes", but an interim response in August set no timetable for deciding which equipment or arrangements are needed and when, and the final response is not due until next year.
Winter outlook and storage
National Gas's winter outlook, published on Friday, says this winter's position looks positive with the Belgian deal in place. Even so, it says that although annual consumption is drifting down slightly, demand peaks remain as high as ever because gas-fired generation is needed when renewable output is low. Like Ofgem, it says continued progress on government plans to reform supply security will be vital for the years ahead.
The Guardian argues the clearest answer is more gas storage, given Britain's skimpy levels. Options include Centrica's Rough facility in the North Sea, which is due to close next spring; the Bains development led by dCarbonX off the north-west coast of England, which may happen anyway; more onshore salt caverns; or German-style forward-buying deals for LNG.
None of this infrastructure is built quickly, and the potential 2030 crunch is getting closer. The column's conclusion is that Britain cannot agonise for as long as it did over Jackdaw, and that last-minute deals with Belgium are not a lasting fix.
Source: The Guardian Business.
Questions and answers
- Why is Britain paying Belgium to keep gas pipeline capacity?
- To keep enough gas flowing through a connecting pipeline this winter if a low-probability, high-impact stress event occurs, such as LNG import terminals at Milford Haven being out of action during a cold snap.
- How much will the Belgian gas deal cost households?
- About 10p a month, equal to £1.19 a year per household, paid to Interconnector Limited to maintain the compressors needed to send large volumes of gas to Britain.
- What are the long-term risks to UK gas supply?
- Neso warned of an emerging risk to gas supply security in 2030. The Guardian says more storage may be needed, with options including the Rough facility, the Bains development, salt caverns or LNG forward-buying deals.
