Tesla-SpaceX merger odds jump above 50% for early 2027, prediction market shows
Prediction market traders lifted the odds of a Tesla-SpaceX integration to 56% for before March, up from 29%, after a Barclays note outlined how a deal could work.
At a glance
- Prediction market odds of a Tesla-SpaceX merger before March rose to 56% from 29% by Friday morning.
- Barclays expects a merger could be announced before Tesla's annual meeting, due no later than Dec. 6, 2026.
- Evercore ISI recommended buying SpaceX shares and raised its 12-month price target 20% to $275.
Prediction market traders pushed the odds of a Tesla-SpaceX merger above 50% for early 2027, after a Barclays note on Wednesday outlined what a combination of the two Elon Musk-controlled companies could look like.
Odds of a merger happening before March climbed to 56% by Friday morning, up from 29%. Odds for an integration before April and May rose to similar levels. The contract asks, "When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?" and will be verified by news outlets and the Securities and Exchange Commission's EDGAR database.
Barclays sees a deal before Tesla's annual meeting
Barclays expects a merger could be announced before Tesla's annual general meeting, which must take place no later than Dec. 6, 2026. Analyst Dan Levy expects the deal may be proposed as an AI vertical integration, involving Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus with SpaceX's Grok and Macrohard.
Terafab, a semiconductor project relying on Tesla, SpaceX and xAI, could also be a "key driver" for the merger, Levy added.
"Notably, while we suspect there would be some financial synergies, the true value would be in vertical integration," Levy said.
Existing ties between the two companies
Tesla, known for its electric vehicles, and SpaceX, a rocket and satellite company, have collaborated before. Both are controlled by Musk. On Thursday, Tesla showed off its long-delayed Roadster, which relies on SpaceX technology to make the vehicle hover, with a video showcasing its capabilities recorded from SpaceX's test site in Texas.
Beyond that collaboration, speculation about a merger has grown after Musk spoke of "more and more overlap" between Tesla and SpaceX on the EV maker's latest earnings call.
SpaceX shares in focus
Earlier Friday, Evercore ISI recommended buying SpaceX shares ahead of its next scheduled earnings release, set for early November, and boosted its 12-month price target on the stock by 20% to $275.
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Source: CNBC.
Questions and answers
- Will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- No merger has been announced. Barclays expects one could be announced before Tesla's annual general meeting, which must take place by Dec. 6, 2026, and prediction market odds for a deal before March rose to 56%.
- Why would Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Barclays analyst Dan Levy expects the deal may be proposed as an AI vertical integration, involving Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus with SpaceX's Grok and Macrohard. He said the Terafab semiconductor project could also be a key driver.
- What did Evercore ISI say about SpaceX shares?
- Evercore ISI recommended buying SpaceX shares ahead of its next scheduled earnings release in early November, and boosted its 12-month price target on the stock by 20% to $275.
