Russia pushes to mediate between Pakistan and Afghanistan as strikes continue

Russia has moved to position itself as a potential mediator between Pakistan and Afghanistan, sending senior officials to both countries on October 14 as the two neighbours continue to exchange cross-border strikes and public threats.

Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev met Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, in Rawalpindi, while Sergey Naryshkin, director of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), met the Taliban's intelligence chief, Abdul Haq Wasiq, in Kabul. Pakistan's military media wing, Inter-Services Public Relations, said the Rawalpindi talks covered "mutual interest and the regional security environment, with particular emphasis on strengthening bilateral security cooperation". The statement made no mention of Afghanistan, and neither Russian officials nor the Taliban have disclosed what the intelligence chiefs discussed.

Why Russia is stepping in

Moscow's special representative for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, told Russia's TASS news agency earlier this month that Russia was ready to play peace broker if both sides requested it. Pakistan's ambassador to Russia, Faisal Niaz Tirmizi, said in March that Islamabad had approached Moscow. The Taliban, however, have not publicly requested Russian mediation.

Other mediators have struggled. Qatar and Turkiye brokered a ceasefire in Doha last October, but talks in Istanbul collapsed the following month and skirmishes resumed. China hosted talks in Urumqi in April, yet attacks inside Pakistan continued, and Islamabad struck Afghan territory again in June, September and this month. Russia's own effort stalled at a Moscow meeting on October 5, where Kabulov said the Afghan delegation objected to Afghanistan being mentioned too often in connection with terrorism. Pakistan's Foreign Office spokesperson, Sajjad Haider Khan, said on October 9 that for Pakistan this was "a substantive security issue, not merely a matter of wording".

A shift in alliances

Russia was for decades one of India's closest strategic and military partners and backed the Northern Alliance against the Taliban in the 1990s, making its current role a notable reversal. In recent years Moscow has strengthened ties with both Islamabad and the Taliban, driven by a wish to broaden its South Asian options as India has drawn closer to the United States, and by the need to counter the Afghan branch of ISIL, also known as Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP), which killed nearly 150 people in an attack in Moscow in 2024. Russia became the first country to recognise the Taliban government, and in May the two sides signed an unpublished military-technical agreement on repairing equipment the Taliban holds.

Doubts over leverage

Analysts question how much Moscow can achieve. Taimur Khan of the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad said mediation "helps Moscow preserve its regional influence and avoid a vacuum that could invite renewed extra-regional involvement". Eldaniz Gusseinov of the research agency Nightingale Int said other actors had so far achieved more tangible mediation results, and that no visible public Russian pressure on the Taliban over the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) was apparent, arguing such pressure would undermine Moscow's standing as a neutral mediator. Abdul Sayed, a Sweden-based analyst, said Russia's primary concern is ISKP and that it appears satisfied with Taliban efforts against the group.

Civilians have borne the cost of the fighting. The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan said Pakistani strikes between September 30 and October 1 killed at least 10 civilians, mostly children. Russia's embassy in Kabul said on X that Moscow was "seriously concerned about the ongoing military confrontation between Pakistan and Afghanistan, which affects civilians, including children".

Pakistan chairs the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation for 2026-27 and will host its summit in Islamabad next year; the Taliban were not invited to this year's summit in Bishkek.

Source: Al Jazeera.