Republicans' $740 million midterm spending blitz fails to shift Senate map

Republican groups and committees aligned with President Donald Trump spent more than $740 million on congressional races between Labor Day and Oct. 14, but the record outlay has barely moved the map with less than three weeks until Election Day on Nov. 3, according to a CNBC analysis of AdImpact data. At least $220 million of that came from Trump-linked groups, and Democrats still lead in the most competitive Senate contests.

The GOP entered the final stretch with unusually deep pockets. MAGA Inc. had nearly $416 million on hand at the end of August, and major Republican organizations had roughly $1 billion available, compared with $579 million for comparable Democratic groups, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Elon Musk has given more than $276 million to Republican groups since July, including $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund and more than $76 million to his America PAC. His known federal giving this cycle totals about $366 million, making him the largest known donor of the midterms. Nine of the 10 largest donor groups this cycle are Republican-aligned.

Why the cash buys less airtime

Candidates are legally entitled to broadcasters' lowest unit rate in the final 60 days before a general election; outside groups are not, so super PAC dollars buy fewer ads. In Dallas, Democrat James Talarico's campaign spent about $2.4 million on local broadcast ads from Oct. 1 to Oct. 14, enough for the average viewer to see his spots about 48 times. The pro-Ken Paxton Texas PAC spent about $7.8 million for roughly 81 views per viewer — more than three times the money for about 70% more exposure.

Across key Senate battlegrounds identified by the Cook Political Report, Republicans outspent Democrats by 26% on broadcast TV through Sept. 30 but generated only 7% more airings. "R money advantage not what it appears to be on [the] surface," Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, who lost his primary to Paxton, posted on X on Oct. 5.

Polls barely move

Despite more than $113 million in negative ads targeting Talarico since the Texas primary, a Siena College poll released Tuesday showed him leading Paxton 48% to 44%, down slightly from a six-point lead in September. In Michigan, after more than $87 million in attacks on Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, Fox News polling from late September found his favorability up five points from early August while Republican Mike Rogers' fell four points.

"Money is an amplifier, not a magic wand," said Neil Newhouse, partner at Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, who compared heavy spending to buying airtime against a political climate blowing hard in your face. Michael Beckel of Issue One said that when an undecided voter has already seen 20 negative ads in a day, the 21st simply gets tuned out.

Defensive spending

The Senate Leadership Fund's April plan — a record $342 million across eight states — did not include Texas, Kansas or Nebraska. Since Sept. 1, the group and its affiliates have spent or committed about $180 million in those three states, all of which Trump carried by double digits in 2024. In North Carolina, the group pulled most remaining ad reservations on Oct. 2 after spending about $32.8 million behind Republican Michael Whatley, as Democrat Roy Cooper held a double-digit polling lead.

In the House, the Congressional Leadership Fund cut spending for GOP Reps. Thomas Kean Jr. of New Jersey and Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa and shelved efforts to flip seats held by Democrats Kristen McDonald Rivet of Michigan and Greg Landsman of Ohio, redirecting about $10 million across 16 other districts. AdImpact projects $11.6 billion in political advertising this 2025-2026 cycle, more than in either 2022 or 2024.

Source: CNBC Top News.