October jobs report: economists expect 59,000 jobs added, 4.2% unemployment
Forecasters see meager hiring in October as a shrinking labor force keeps the jobless rate steady, while long-term unemployment worsens.
At a glance
- Economists expect October nonfarm payrolls to rise by 59,000, up from 29,000 in September, per the Dow Jones consensus.
- The unemployment rate is forecast to stay at 4.2%, with the labor force down about a million since September 2025.
- Layoffs are low and quits are at a year-and-a-half high, but long-term unemployment has risen by 495,000 since January 2025.
U.S. employers are expected to have added just 59,000 jobs in October, a slight improvement on September's 29,000 gain, according to the Dow Jones consensus, with the unemployment rate forecast to hold at 4.2%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the October nonfarm payrolls report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
The modest forecast continues a stretch of sparse hiring. Payroll growth averaged only 35,000 a month from January 2025 through September 2026, with just one month above 200,000 and seven months of job losses. Over that period the unemployment rate rose by only 0.2 percentage point.
A shrinking labor force
Part of the explanation is on the supply side. The labor force has contracted by 434,000 over the period and is down by just under a million since September 2025. The labor force participation rate has fallen 0.8 percentage point to 61.8%.
"Long-term, we're not going to need as many jobs added to the economy to have stable employment because we have fewer people who are available to work," said Nicole Bachaud, labor economist at the jobs site ZipRecruiter. She pointed to an aging workforce pushing people into retirement, decades of low birth rates and a significant drop in immigration.
Bachaud said measuring the labor market's health in this climate is a moving target, and that wage growth may become a more important signal, especially for lower-wage workers. She said monthly gains of 200,000-plus jobs are unlikely to return.
Low layoffs, long job searches
Other measures suggest a market that is weak on hiring but not deteriorating. Initial jobless claims fell to 189,000 last week, the lowest since July and near the lowest level since 1969. Job openings rose by 333,000 in September, and quits — often read as a sign of confidence in finding new work — reached 3.36 million, the highest in a year and a half.
Long-term unemployment remains the weak spot. The number of workers jobless for more than 25 weeks is up 495,000 since January 2025, and the average duration of unemployment stands at 24.8 weeks, an increase of 2.8 weeks, according to BLS data through September.
Federal Reserve officials generally view the labor market as solid, though questions remain.
"If you have a job, you're fine, right?" Bachaud said. "There's not a lot of movement happening, but at least you're employed." For those out of work, she said, slow turnover means employers are neither replacing departing staff nor expanding, making it hard to break back in.
Source: CNBC.
Questions and answers
- What is the forecast for the October jobs report?
- Economists expect a gain of 59,000 nonfarm payrolls, according to the Dow Jones consensus, following 29,000 in September. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.2%.
- When is the October jobs report released?
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the October nonfarm payrolls report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Why is hiring so weak if the unemployment rate is low?
- The labor force is shrinking as workers retire and immigration falls, so fewer new jobs are needed to keep unemployment steady. Payroll growth averaged 35,000 a month from January 2025 through September 2026.
