Nationals leader Matt Canavan weighs lower house run as pollster warns of One Nation surge

Nationals leader Matt Canavan has not ruled out moving from the Senate to the House of Representatives after veteran Queensland MP Michelle Landry announced on Friday that she would not recontest her seat of Capricornia, around Rockhampton, at the next election.

Landry's retirement has fuelled heavy speculation that Canavan will run in the central Queensland seat. Earlier this month he told Sky News he would do "whatever it takes" to hold Capricornia. "If I'm required, if it is required to keep a seat, to hold one more seat in the lower house somewhere. I will do it," he said.

Appearing alongside Landry at a press conference on Friday, Canavan shrugged off questions about the seat but did not rule out a switch. Landry denied she had been pushed to resign to make way for another Nationals member and declined to speculate about who might replace her.

Coalition leader Angus Taylor also declined to speculate when asked at a separate press conference, praising Canavan only as an "extraordinary colleague".

Landry criticises One Nation

Landry used the announcement to criticise One Nation, amid speculation that Pauline Hanson could attempt her own switch to contest Capricornia. Landry described the party as "not very pleasant" and criticised its "obnoxious" cartoon videos. "I think they need to pull their heads in," she said.

"I've had a lot of dealings with One Nation over the years, and I can tell you, most of it hasn't been very pleasant," Landry said. "When I look at people that move into an area to run for a political position, it doesn't usually end well."

Pollster warns of Senate loss

Kos Samaras, director at the polling group Redbridge, said Canavan had a "zero per cent" chance of holding his Senate seat in 2028 if One Nation's polling surge remains unchanged.

Senators up for re-election in Queensland at the next poll include two LNP members, James McGrath and Canavan, two Labor senators, one Greens senator and Hanson herself. A One Nation surge could deliver the party one or more additional Senate seats, most likely at the expense of the second name on the LNP ticket, Canavan.

"He goes from a 0% chance of being elected as a senator, to potentially winning [in Capricornia]," Samaras said. "That will also be difficult, because of One Nation, but he is in a better position going downstairs."

Last month's Guardian Essential poll showed One Nation with a 25% primary vote nationwide, with Labor at 29% and the Coalition at an all-time low of 22%. Samaras pointed to Redbridge polling showing what he called "a complete wipeout" of the Coalition at the hands of One Nation, including a large analysis from May showing Hanson's party winning up to 59 seats nationally, largely from the Liberals and Nationals.

"On current polling, they'll win nearly every seat the LNP holds in Queensland," he said, including Senate spots. "If there's a state in this country that's good for One Nation, it's Queensland." Samaras added that polling nationwide was highly volatile, noting that the Queensland state LNP government was polling well.

Source: The Guardian.