Leaked Russian plan aims to make Ukrainian cities unliveable, document shows

Russian missile and drone strikes have hit power plants in Kyiv and Kharkiv this week, cutting electricity and water supplies in major Ukrainian cities and matching a Russian planning document that Ukrainian intelligence says it intercepted last month.

The document, seen by The Guardian and titled "Analysis of Ukraine's Energy, Housing and Utilities Sectors", sets out aims that include degrading Ukrainians' quality of life through power outages and shutting off water altogether — which it predicts would worsen sanitary conditions and force residents out of cities.

A blueprint circulated in Europe

European officials familiar with the assessment say it was likely produced by analytical departments linked to Russian military or intelligence agencies, and that copies have circulated in Ukraine in previous years. Ukraine's energy minister, Denys Shmyhal, briefed European allies on the plan last month; a copy was first reported by The New York Times. The Guardian is withholding some specifics at Ukraine's request, which the energy ministry said could aid further strikes.

"There are two large documents, written very coldly and very clearly, with tables showing the number of weapons needed for each facility to destroy it," Shmyhal said. "The types of weapons range from ballistic missiles to jet-powered and conventional drones. We understand how they are going to act."

Strikes on Kyiv's energy ring

On Tuesday night, strikes hit three major power plants in the Kyiv region — Combined Heat and Power Plants 4 and 5, and the Trypillya Thermal Power Plant — along with a large substation that transfers electricity from two of Ukraine's main nuclear plants to the capital. Other substations making up the "Kyiv energy ring" have also been targeted, in a campaign that could threaten a humanitarian crisis in a city of 3 million people.

The document lists vulnerable grid targets and contemplates strikes on high-risk sites, including switchyards at several nuclear power plants. It specifies the weapons needed — Geran 4/5 jet-powered drones and hypersonic or cruise missiles — to destroy thermal plants, substations and water pumping stations. Russia pressed on with the strikes even after Donald Trump unilaterally declared an "energy ceasefire" last week between Moscow and Kyiv, as Washington and Kyiv are embroiled in a major political quarrel.

Winter risk

The assessment predicts that hitting the prescribed targets could destroy more than 90% of the power Kyiv is budgeted for each winter. Economic Pravda, a Ukrainian business news outlet, reported on Thursday that the three major Kyiv plants can no longer generate electricity. Its experts forecast blackouts of up to eight hours a day if repairs are quick and the winter moderate, and up to 20 hours a day in a worst case of freezing temperatures and frequent attacks.

Ukraine is badly outgunned, with its stocks of US-provided PAC-3 missiles dwindling. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy this week criticised city authorities over poor winter planning and failure to protect energy infrastructure. Protests over heat and electricity outages are planned for Saturday.

Analyst Volodymyr Fesenko said the risk this year would be worse than last. "There's a very high chance that Russia tries to break us this winter," he said.

Source: The Guardian.