Iran weighs reply to Vance letter offering to restart US diplomacy

Iran is weighing how to respond to a personal letter from the US vice-president, JD Vance, offering to restart diplomacy, which may be the last chance to avert a new conflict between Washington and Tehran after Tuesday's midterm elections.

The letter, sent after mediation led mainly by Qatar, went on Sunday to Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran's supreme national security council. It asks Tehran for nuclear commitments at the start of a process that would lead to the Strait of Hormuz reopening within seven days, in return for US sanctions relief.

A reply is imminent, but Iran is reluctant to give upfront and irreversible nuclear commitments — such as exporting its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to a third country — if the US steps in return, including the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil exports, can be reversed. Third-party guarantees have been discussed, with China often mentioned as the only country of sufficient standing to underwrite them.

Vance's return seen as significant

Vance's return to the negotiations is a sign the US has not abandoned diplomacy. Tehran trusts him marginally more than most White House politicians and envoys, but its high command remains suspicious about his standing after a 14-point memorandum of understanding he negotiated fell apart when other administration members took charge of implementing it. That led to unilateral US steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran said contravened the agreement; Trump also came to detest the memorandum for delaying nuclear talks by up to 60 days.

Iran sets out seven conditions

Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Ghalibaf, wrote on X that "the carrot-and-stick approach has no effect on Iran" and that progress required agreement on Iran's seven conditions. Those include lifting sanctions, ending asset freezes and ending the war on all fronts — a phrase implying an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon.

Washington wants front-loaded, specific commitments on removing Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Tehran is unwilling to give up its leverage and resists the return of UN nuclear inspectors, fearing they could give the US intelligence on the stockpile's whereabouts and state. It has proposed blending the material down so it can no longer be used for a nuclear weapon.

The letter went to Rezaei rather than Ghalibaf or the foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, because Washington judged that decision-making power rests with those closest to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Ghalibaf and Rezaei met the supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, last week to discuss the risk of a new war. Iran has plans ready to strike back at US interests in the region, including desalination plants, internet cables and electricity grids across the Gulf.

Senator calls US war plan 'insane'

Chris Murphy, a Democratic senator from Connecticut, told a briefing at the Middle East Institute that he had been given a fairly detailed account of the war plan. "Their plan is insane," he said. "It will lead to devastating escalation and the likely destruction of our commitment to the rule of law." He added that in his judgment it would prolong and escalate the war in a way devastating to US security interests.

A third US attack in two years would need the US, probably alongside a caretaker government in Israel, to strike previously off-limits targets. Europe would not join. The views of Gulf states, the main targets of Iranian reprisals, would be key. On the margins of the UN general assembly, Tehran proposed bringing nuclear talks forward, saying they could begin within six or seven days of the US restoring the sanctions waiver on its oil exports and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Source: The Guardian World.