Heat killed a record 50,000 people in Europe's cities this summer, study finds

Heat killed an estimated 50,000 people in European cities this summer — the highest toll on record — and scientists say human-caused climate breakdown was responsible for about two of every three of those deaths.

The estimate comes from new research that combined established relationships between heat and health in 854 cities with this summer's temperature data. The authors calculate that warming driven by greenhouse gas emissions cut short an extra 32,000 lives in urban areas between June and August, as hot days pushed vulnerable bodies to their limits and warm nights gave them no chance to recover.

The study found the share of heat deaths attributable to climate breakdown has climbed from roughly 40% at the start of the century to 65% this summer. “In some sense, the absolute numbers of the heat-related deaths estimated across the 854 urban areas are indeed staggering,” said Malcolm Mistry, a climate and health scientist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and a co-author of the study. “But perhaps what is even more alarming is the proportion of these deaths that we attribute to anthropogenic climate change.”

Where deaths were highest

Age-standardised death rates were highest in Malta, Italy and Hungary. In absolute numbers, Italy, France, Spain, Germany and the UK recorded the largest tolls; the study estimates 4,354 heat deaths in the UK alone. Katie White, the UK's climate transition minister, said the figures represented thousands of families who had lost a loved one this summer because of the climate crisis.

Naples was the hardest-hit city, at 815 deaths per million people. Mario Guarino, an emergency doctor at Ospedale CTO in the north of the city, said emergency room visits rose 15% during the hottest weeks. He described patients whose conditions were complicated by heat, loneliness and poverty, including a terminally ill cancer patient living in a hot attic because no company could be found to install air conditioning, and an elderly man with dementia found on the floor with a fractured pelvis after his caregiver left the country.

Age and geography

People aged over 85 made up almost half the death toll, though younger people were affected too: 833 deaths were estimated among those aged 20 to 44. The cities studied hold roughly 40% of Europe's population, and the authors caution that the figures cannot simply be extrapolated to towns and villages.

The EU's climate monitoring service said this month that the heat baking western Europe was the worst on record, with more than half the continent under “very strong” heat stress that felt hotter than 38C. Milder temperatures in eastern Europe left the continental average as the third-highest on record. Greenhouse gases have warmed Europe about twice as fast as the global average.

Caveats and calls to act

David García-García, a researcher at the mortality monitoring system at Madrid's Carlos III health institute, who was not involved in the study, called it a valuable contribution that allows comparisons across the continent. He noted, however, that the estimates rest on observed temperatures and epidemiological models and do not incorporate actual data on deaths occurring in summer 2026.

Doctors have urged governments to burn fewer fossil fuels, strengthen health systems, green cities, widen access to air conditioning and encourage people to drink water and seek shade. They also stressed the value of checking on vulnerable neighbours and relatives. “The real epidemic these days is loneliness,” Guarino said, describing elderly people left alone and unable to afford cooling.

Source: The Guardian.