Democrats win midterms as voters cite economy and blame Trump, CNBC poll finds

Democrats won control of both the House and Senate in Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections, ending Republican unified power in Washington, after voters put the economy and cost of living at the center of their decisions and largely blamed President Donald Trump for their financial strain.

The CNBC Voter Poll found that nearly nine in 10 voters called the cost of living a crucial or major factor in their congressional vote. Respondents ranked the economy as the most important issue facing the country, ahead of democracy and immigration. Three in four described the economy as 'poor' or 'not so good,' while just 2% called it 'excellent.' Fewer than one in five said their family's finances were better than two years earlier, and about two-thirds said Trump's policies made economic conditions worse. More than three in five said his policies led to higher prices, and almost nine in 10 were concerned about prices for utilities, food and oil.

The election took place as the U.S. war with Iran remained politically unpopular and added to inflationary pressure. Nearly three in four voters said the war was a crucial or major factor in their vote. Trump told Fox News that voters were likely frustrated by higher gas prices even if they broadly supported military action against Iran. Vice President JD Vance said on social media that some 2024 Trump supporters probably backed Democrats because of the war.

Gasoline averaged about $4.15 a gallon on Tuesday, the highest for any midterm or presidential election day since at least 2000, according to AAA. Prices had risen about 37% over the year as the Middle East conflict disrupted global crude trade. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, estimated that higher gas and energy prices cost the average U.S. household nearly $1,230 after the Iran war began, with borrowing costs and expanded military services adding more than $900. Inflation measured by the consumer price index accelerated again during the conflict, while consumer prices rose faster than wages in recent months. Diesel set records that transportation executives said felt 'like science fiction,' and the Bureau of Labor Statistics attributed higher prices for many goods partly to rising diesel costs.

Voters also gave Trump low marks on tariffs and immigration. In the poll, 64% said Trump's tariff policies hurt the economy in their area, while 14% said they helped. Researchers at the New York Federal Reserve concluded that some consumer prices would have declined if not for Trump's tariffs, many of which the Supreme Court later invalidated. The White House also carried out mass deportations in major cities, prompting large protests and the deaths of two U.S. citizens by federal immigration agents. A University of Pennsylvania study found those enforcement surges reduced foot traffic and caused billions in lost consumer spending. About three in five voters disapproved of how Immigration and Customs Enforcement handled its job and said the administration went too far on immigration, though voters still said Republicans were better on the issue.

Some Trump policies were more popular: the IRS said in October that average tax refunds rose 11% after his 'big beautiful bill,' and so-called Trump Accounts let parents use government and donor funds to build savings for children. But affordability still drove the vote. Unlike 2024, when more voters saw Trump as better able to handle the economy than former Vice President Kamala Harris, this week voters said Democrats were better suited than Republicans. Seven in 10 said the economic system generally favored the wealthy. Zandi said it is clear what is upsetting Americans and that policymakers should listen before the next election in two years.

Source: CNBC Top News.