Democrats win Congress, putting US-Israel ties and AIPAC spending under scrutiny
Democrats took both chambers of Congress in Tuesday's US midterms, as Republicans blamed the Iran war for their losses and criticism of Israel moved into the mainstream.
At a glance
- Democrats won majorities in both chambers of Congress in Tuesday's US midterm elections.
- Vice President JD Vance blamed the war on Iran and the cost of living for Republican losses.
- AIPAC's super PAC spent $84.1m on races, with $55.3m going to contests its preferred candidate lost.
Democrats won majorities in both chambers of the United States Congress in Tuesday's midterm elections, a result that has pushed Washington's relationship with Israel to the centre of US political debate and exposed a rift in the Republican alliance with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Republicans were quick to blame the Trump administration's foreign policy for their defeat. Vice President JD Vance said on X that "the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone", pointing to the war on Iran, which he said had driven up fuel prices and cost $47bn.
Vance cited an unnamed pollster who asked voters who switched parties what would bring them back. They listed an end to the war on Iran, action on the cost of living, a return to "America First" and a fundamental change in Washington's relationship with Israel — positions at odds with Trump's campaign promises, according to Al Jazeera.
About six in 10 voters surveyed by The Associated Press said going to war with Iran was the wrong decision, and even more said the cost of living was key to how they voted.
El-Sayed's Michigan win
In Detroit, Michigan's Democratic senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed, who campaigned mainly on healthcare and the cost of living, called for an end to US military assistance to Israel. He won despite opposition from the pro-Israel AIPAC lobby group and becomes the first Muslim elected to the US Senate.
"We don't want our money sent to do apartheid or genocide or war," El-Sayed told supporters.
Andrew Payne of the Chatham House think tank said a broad Republican realignment remains unlikely, but that Democrats "could be emboldened to take an even tougher line moving forward".
AIPAC's mixed night
AIPAC said on Wednesday that more than 234 candidates backed by its members had won seats, and congratulated Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries — a reminder that it retains support in both parties. But a Responsible Statecraft report found that AIPAC's super PAC, United Democracy Project, and other committees spent $84.1m on races, of which $55.3m went to races its preferred candidate lost. In 2022 and 2024, 69 percent and 87 percent of the group's spending backed winning candidates. Spending against El-Sayed alone reached $31.47m.
Limits on Congress
Trump said on election day that Washington would end annual military aid to Israel after this year, removing what he called a "bad talking point" for Democrats, while keeping weapons sales going. The current agreement provides $3.8bn a year through September 2028.
Democrats are expected to use committee hearings to examine what the Biden and Trump administrations knew about Israel's use of US weapons in Gaza. Votes on arms sales have grown: 11 senators backed a 2024 effort on Israel's human rights record, 27 backed a 2025 motion on a weapons sale, and, this year, 40 backed a measure opposing the sale of military bulldozers.
Analysts caution that change will be slow. Daniel Levy of the US/Middle East Project said Trump's veto would likely block any partial arms ban, and Simon Mabon of Lancaster University said deeper structural and military ties "transcend Congress".
Source: Al Jazeera.
Questions and answers
- Did AIPAC's election spending succeed in the US midterms?
- It was mixed. AIPAC said more than 234 candidates backed by its members won seats, but a Responsible Statecraft report found $55.3m of the $84.1m spent by its super PAC went to races its preferred candidate lost.
- Who is Abdul El-Sayed?
- He is Michigan's Democratic senator-elect and the first Muslim elected to the US Senate. He campaigned on healthcare and the cost of living, and called for an end to US military assistance to Israel.
- Can Democrats end US military aid to Israel?
- Analysts say a partial arms ban is possible with Democratic control of Congress, but it would likely be blocked by Trump's presidential veto, which requires a two-thirds majority in both chambers to override.
