Congress may influence gas prices, but relief delayed
Democrats taking Congress won’t quickly lower fuel costs, as oil prices stay high due to the Iran war and limited legislative tools.
At a glance
- Democrats are poised to control Congress after the November 2026 midterms, but new members won’t be sworn in until January, so lower gasoline and diesel prices are not expected soon.
- Gasoline averages $4.12 per gallon and diesel $6.52, about $1 and $2.50 higher than a year ago, driven by the Iran war pushing Brent crude near $95.
- Congress can pass resolutions and attach conditions to war spending, but the president’s veto and executive powers limit any direct impact on oil prices.
Democrats are poised to control Congress after the November 2026 midterms, but the new members won’t be sworn in until January, so lower gasoline and diesel prices are not expected soon.
The war in Iran has driven Brent crude to about $95 a barrel, up from $70 in February, causing gasoline to average $4.12 per gallon — roughly $1 higher than a year ago — and diesel to sit at $6.52, about $2.50 above last year, according to AAA.
Those high prices have helped major oil companies earn large profits over the last two quarters, while drivers face steep costs at the pump and the price of goods across the economy.
Limited congressional power
Once seated, lawmakers have limited authority to directly affect oil prices, which are set by a complex global market, and most recent attempts to lower fuel costs came from the White House, not Congress.
President Trump previously tried to ease diesel costs by loosening rules on dyed diesel and by announcing a temporary lift of sanctions to allow more Russian diesel into the U.S., but those moves had little impact.
New Democratic leaders, led by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, say they will push the president to end the war, arguing that cutting military spending and blocking war authorizations could lower living costs.
Economists say a definitive end to the Iran conflict could cause crude prices to fall $15‑$20 a barrel quickly, but translating that into lower pump prices will take months as oil must be refined and distributed.
Additional risks include continued attacks on Russian refineries, U.S. refinery capacity constraints, and potential renewed hostilities that could keep freight and insurance costs high, prolonging high fuel prices.
Analysts warn that even with a cease‑fire, it may take three to six months for crude to return to pre‑war levels and another month or two for gasoline and diesel to follow, meaning relief could be a new normal if the conflict persists.
Questions and answers
- Will gasoline and diesel prices fall soon after the 2026 midterms?
- No, because the new Congress won’t be seated until January and has limited power to affect oil prices, which are set by the global market.
- How might ending the war in Iran lower fuel costs?
- If the war ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil supply could increase, potentially dropping Brent crude by $15‑$20 a barrel and eventually reducing gasoline and diesel prices, though this could take months.
- What actions can Congress take to influence fuel prices?
- Congress can pass resolutions, attach conditions to war spending and block confirmations, but the president’s veto and executive authority over sanctions and military actions limit its impact.
