Brazil's runoff: Lula's legacy vs. Bolsonaro's dynasty

Brazil's presidential runoff on Sunday, Oct. 25, will determine whether left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva extends his career or whether right-wing Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro begins a new chapter for his family's political dynasty. The two face off after Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro, finished ahead of Lula in the first round on Oct. 4.

Many polls show the race within the margin of error, though Flávio Bolsonaro currently leads and some surveys indicate the gap has narrowed recently. Voter engagement has risen sharply, with rallies drawing tens of thousands in major cities and filling plazas and campuses across the country.

A victory for Flávio Bolsonaro would expand his family's influence over the Brazilian right, which had previously been dominated by more moderate figures. A close ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, he would reinforce a rightward shift seen in recent elections across Latin America.

Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term and says this will be his final election. He first took office in 2003 and later fell out of favor in the 2010s amid a corruption scandal that led to his imprisonment; courts later annulled his convictions on procedural grounds. In 2022, he narrowly defeated Jair Bolsonaro.

Jair Bolsonaro is serving a sentence under house arrest for plotting to overturn that election result. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, has promised to pardon his father if elected. His other proposals include shrinking the Brazilian state to spur economic growth.

Those economic plans were a flashpoint in the first televised debate last Sunday. Lula asked, "Have you seen how things are going in Argentina, and are you going to keep saying that Milei is your model?" — a reference to Argentine President Javier Milei's austerity program and rising poverty there. Flávio Bolsonaro, meanwhile, vowed an aggressive crackdown on organized crime, telling voters, "I will give you back the streets so that you can walk in safety."

Crime ranks as a top election issue for many Brazilians. "Security is awful," said Marli Alves, 63, a Rio de Janeiro prison worker and Bolsonaro voter. "You can be at an outdoor event and someone sweeps through and robs you of everything."

For some Lula supporters, the stakes feel urgent. "We have a new feeling of urgency," said Camila Sixel, 40, a corporate event planner campaigning for Lula in Rio de Janeiro. She added that she worries about "the future for women, the fight against racism and social inequality, and the protection of vulnerable people."

Beyond rallies, protests have taken place outside Meta's São Paulo offices. Lula's campaign has accused Meta of unfairly restricting his content, which it says could benefit his rival — a claim the company denies. Meta's Oversight Board and a group of U.N. experts have also raised concerns about how political content is handled. Meta acknowledged technical issues with election-related content in Brazil but said, "We do not suppress content to harm one side, nor do we give preferential treatment to any side."

With the race so tight, small factors could matter — from social media distortions to turnout on Election Day. A survey released Wednesday showed that 10% of voters had not firmly decided, leaving room for a last-minute shift.

Source: NPR News.