Brazil poll shows Flavio Bolsonaro edging ahead of Lula before run-off
A CNT/MDA survey puts the right-wing senator at 46.8 percent to Lula's 45.9 percent, though all recent polls fall within the margin of error.
At a glance
- A CNT/MDA poll released Friday put Flavio Bolsonaro at 46.8 percent and Lula at 45.9 percent before Brazil's October 25 run-off.
- Quaest and Datafolha polls also showed Bolsonaro slightly ahead, but all three results fall within a 2 percent margin of error.
- Bolsonaro led the October 4 first round with 56,104,503 votes to Lula's 53,879,538.
Another poll has put right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro narrowly ahead of leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva before Brazil's October 25 run-off election.
The CNT/MDA survey, released on Friday, showed Bolsonaro taking 46.8 percent of the vote against 45.9 percent for Lula. It came a day after a Quaest poll found Bolsonaro on 46 percent to Lula's 44 percent, while a separate Datafolha poll put Bolsonaro at 47 percent against Lula's 45 percent, down from 49 percent a week earlier.
Because all three results fall within a 2 percent margin of error, many experts still consider the race a toss-up. Even so, the numbers point to an uncomfortable political climate for Lula, who a month ago had been projected to win comfortably at the ballot box.
First-round lead for Bolsonaro
Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, took the most votes of any candidate in the first round on October 4, winning 56,104,503 votes compared with Lula's 53,879,538.
The senator has closely followed the political persona of his father, who has been barred from running for re-election until 2030 after an electoral court ruled he abused his authority to cast doubt on the 2022 presidential election. The elder Bolsonaro has remained under house arrest while serving a 27-year sentence connected to efforts to overturn the 2022 vote, which he lost to Lula.
Flavio Bolsonaro, 42, has pledged a crackdown on crime and drug trafficking and to address taxes used to pay for government programmes. A win would make him the latest conservative leader closely aligned with US President Donald Trump to take power in the region.
Lula campaigns and claims a win in Congress
Lula has been holding regular rallies in an effort to energise his supporters. The 80-year-old is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term after a political career spanning nearly five decades.
On Wednesday, Congress approved an amendment to give workers two paid days off a week instead of one, handing Lula a major victory on one of his top social reform promises just days before the vote.
The election comes at a pivotal time for Latin America's largest economy. Brazilians are grappling with concerns over crime and the cost of living, while the country faces an increasingly tense relationship with the United States. The vote is also being watched closely across a region that has shifted sharply to the right in a series of recent elections.
Source: Al Jazeera.
Questions and answers
- Who is leading Brazil's run-off election polls?
- Three recent surveys put right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro slightly ahead of President Lula. All fall within a 2 percent margin of error, so experts still call the race a toss-up.
- When is Brazil's run-off election?
- The run-off is scheduled for October 25, after Flavio Bolsonaro took the most votes in the first round on October 4 with 56,104,503 to Lula's 53,879,538.
- Why is Jair Bolsonaro not running in Brazil's election?
- The former president has been barred from running for re-election until 2030 after an electoral court ruled he abused his authority to cast doubt on the 2022 election. He is under house arrest while serving a 27-year sentence.
