Big Oil earnings set to surge; analyst warns caution on refiners

ExxonMobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips are all expected to more than double their per-share earnings from a year earlier when the next round of Big Oil results arrives in the coming days, CNBC reported, with refining-heavy companies facing even larger swings.

Marathon Petroleum's earnings estimate stands at $25.37 a share. Three months ago the Ohio-based refiner reported earnings per share of $17.73 against an estimate of $14.27, and a year ago it earned $4.51 a share. Rising oil prices and a much wider crack spread on refined products are expected to lift sales by $13 billion in a single year.

For all four companies, guidance may matter more than the headline numbers. What executives say about the future and capital spending will draw close scrutiny from investors.

Political attention

The figures are also likely to attract attention from politicians, who are expected to criticise the industry as oil prices rise. An industry source told CNBC the sector is "used to" political attacks but wishes more focus were placed on the boom-or-bust nature of the business, arguing that profits earned now help cushion the bad times when oil prices fall again.

Analyst urges caution

BTIG chart analyst Jonathan Krinsky said caution is warranted on the energy space. The S&P Refining Index is up nearly 160% in 2026, its best year in at least three decades, he noted. "At a minimum we should expect consolidation, but more likely some significant downside reversion," Krinsky wrote this week. He is also wary of the charts for Valero and Marathon Petroleum, saying Marathon "hasn't quite broken its uptrend, but feels like it's coming."

Wider context

The results land as the energy industry gathers for ADIPEC in Abu Dhabi, one of the sector's biggest conferences. CNBC also plans to examine Europe's energy situation, where natural gas storage levels are below their recent average and prices for imported LNG are near record highs. Oil continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, partly because of the U.S. Navy's presence there, though the risk remains that renewed conflict with Iran could push prices higher.

Separately, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC from a nuclear power plant in rural Illinois that his office is offering billions of dollars in loan guarantees to expand U.S. nuclear power capacity. He also discussed oil, Iran, Hormuz and the role of U.S. LNG in supplying Europe.

Source: CNBC.